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Tropical Storm Kristy Graphics

2018-08-11 04:38:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 02:38:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 11 Aug 2018 03:25:32 GMT

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Tropical Storm Kristy Forecast Discussion Number 17

2018-08-11 04:37:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 298 WTPZ43 KNHC 110237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kristy Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132018 800 PM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018 Kristy appears to have begun a slow weakening trend as it is now passing over progressively cooler SSTs. Convection has become confined mainly to the northeastern quadrant, likely in response to some moderate west-southwesterly shear, as analyzed by UW-CIMSS. The initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt, and is in agreement with the current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity forecast philosophy remains the same as in the recent forecasts. Kristy will move over SSTs of 23-25 degrees C over the next couple of days, and steady weakening is expected to occur tonight through Sunday. By Sunday evening, Kristy is expected to lose any remaining deep convection and become a remnant low. Kristy is moving just west of due north, with an initial motion estimate of 355/8 kt. During the weakening trend over the next couple of days, Kristy should make a gradual turn to the northwest as it becomes shallower and therefore steered by the low- to mid- level flow around ridging to the north. As the system loses its convection and becomes a remnant low, a turn to the west-northwest is expected. This motion will then continue until the remnant low dissipates by the middle of the week. The track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly to the left of the previous forecast, following the trends in the latest consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/0300Z 20.5N 130.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 11/1200Z 21.1N 130.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 12/0000Z 21.7N 130.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 12/1200Z 22.0N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 13/0000Z 22.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 14/0000Z 23.0N 134.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 15/0000Z 23.6N 137.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 16/0000Z 24.4N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg/Latto

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Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

Tropical Storm Kristy Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17

2018-08-11 04:37:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 807 FOPZ13 KNHC 110236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132018 0300 UTC SAT AUG 11 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KRISTY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 130.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 130W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 130W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 130W 34 1 X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 135W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG/LATTO

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Category: Transportation and Logistics

 

 

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