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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-09-10 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 100834 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 200 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 Linda continues to decay. Much of the deep convection has now dissipated, and the cyclone is weakening over cool water and within a stable air mass. A pair of ASCAT passes recently sampled the circulation of Linda and revealed that the winds and are near 40 kt. This is in agreement with an average of the Dvorak Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The scatterometer data also indicated that the size of the tropical storm force wind field has decreased considerably and is confined to an area within 60 n mi north of the center. Additional weakening is forecast since sea surface temperatures are expected to decrease even more along the projected path. Linda will likely become a tropical depression later today and a remnant low by tonight. Dissipation is forecast to occur in about 4 days, following the global model guidance. The weakening storm is moving northwestward at 8 kt. A gradual turn to the west-northwest and then west with a decrease in forward speed is predicted over the next few days as the cyclone is steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the right of the previous one and is very near a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells could continue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the southwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 25.6N 118.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 26.3N 118.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 26.9N 119.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/1800Z 27.3N 120.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/0600Z 27.5N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/0600Z 27.6N 122.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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