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Tropical Storm LINDA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-09-10 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 101434 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152015 800 AM PDT THU SEP 10 2015 Linda remains void of any organized deep convection and the mid-level circulation is decoupling from the low-level vortex. The initial intensity has been lowered to 35 kt based on a blend of the latest Dvorak estimates and assuming some decay since last night's ASCAT passes. Gradual spin down of the circulation is forecast as it moves over cool waters during the next few days, and if deep convection does not return, Linda will likely become a remnant low later today. The initial motion estimate is 320/06. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest is forecast during the next day or so with a decrease in forward speed as the shallow vortex is steered by the low-level flow. Before the cyclone dissipates in 3 to 4 days, a motion south of due west is possible. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one and is close to the middle of the guidance envelope. Large swells from Linda are affecting the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These swells could continue for another day or so. In addition, some of Linda's mid- and upper-level moisture is spreading northward into portions of the southwestern U.S., which could trigger locally heavy rainfall. For additional information, please consult products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 26.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 26.6N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1200Z 27.1N 120.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1200Z 27.5N 122.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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