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Tropical Storm Lorena Public Advisory Number 5
2019-09-18 16:37:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 181437 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorena Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152019 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019 ...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 103.5W ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM SE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southwestern coast of Mexico from Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Zihuatanejo to Punta San Telmo * Cabo Corrientes to Punta Mita A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests in Baja California del Sur should monitor the progress of Lorena. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorena was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 103.5 West. Lorena is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A slower northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Lorena is expected to move near or over the southwestern coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area tonight and Thursday. The center of Lorena is then expected to move west-northwestward away from the western coast of Mexico late Thursday and Friday and approach southern Baja California Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Lorena is expected to become a hurricane as it nears the coast of southwestern Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area as early as this evening, and then will spread northwestward tonight and Thursday. Tropical Storm conditions will first reach the coast within the hurricane warning area later today. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the southern portion of the tropical storm warning area later today, and then are expected to spread northward along the coast through Thursday night. RAINFALL: Lorena is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches along the coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will affect portions of the southwest coast of Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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