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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-09-18 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT A BAND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOSELY WRAPS AROUND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER 72 HOURS...LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANUEL TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER FORECASTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE...WITH THE HWRF LYING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE...SHOWING LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS MANUEL BECOMING STATIONARY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING WEST AND MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT LEAST PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED DEPTH OF MANUEL...SINCE A DEEPER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A BEND TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOREAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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