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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-09-18 19:44:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181744 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1100 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 RECENT MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO RAISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY. BASED ON SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM UW/CIMSS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE INNER CORE INTERACTS WITH LAND. SINCE THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW CALLS FOR MANUEL TO APPROACH HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT NEARS THE COAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO. MANUEL CONTINUES MOVING A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER FORECAST. THE LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED EASTWARD AND NOW SHOWS MANUEL MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 12Z GFS THAT NOW TAKES MANUEL INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK FORECAST COULD BE REQUIRED IF SOME OF THE OTHER RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHIFTS EASTWARD LATER TODAY. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS IN LIEU OF THE 1800 UTC INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1800Z 23.6N 107.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 24.0N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 24.6N 108.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 25.2N 108.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 25.2N 108.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 24.9N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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