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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 22
2013-09-19 22:35:11| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 192034 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT THU SEP 19 2013 RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE ORGANIZATION OF MANUEL HAS DEGRADED THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT. MANUEL WILL MOVE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO SHORTLY...WHICH WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN.... AND DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL MANUEL DISSIPATES. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 25.7N 107.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/0600Z 26.3N 106.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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