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Tropical Storm MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2014-08-23 04:51:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230251 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 22 2014 Marie appears to be on the verge of intensifying rapidly. The cyclone is in the process of developing a central dense overcast, consisting of very cold-topped convection. Numerous outer bands are also present. The upper-level outflow over the storm is well established, suggesting an expanding warm core. Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, with UW-CIMSS ADT values around 4.0. A blend of these data are used to set the initial intensity to 60 kt. Marie continues on a steady west-northwestward course, with the initial motion estimated to be 285/13. A continued west- northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected through 48 hours while the cyclone moves along the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge extending west-southwestward from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific. A bend in the track toward the northwest is anticipated after 72 hours as Marie reaches the western end of the aforementioned ridge. The track guidance is generally in good agreement on this scenario, and the track forecast is little changed from the previous one despite a slight shift in the guidance to the north this cycle. The stage is set for Marie to rapidly intensify during the next day or two, with global models forecasting a nearly ideal environment for strengthening. The SHIPS model output bolsters this idea, indicating a 54 percent likelihood of a 30-kt increase in intensity during the next 24 hours. The official forecast is at or above the upper end of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. Given the very favorable large-scale conditions, it is possible that the intensity forecast may not be strong enough in the short term. Then again, it cannot be ruled out that unpredictable internal dynamics such as eyewall replacement cycles could prevent Marie from realizing its full potential. By days 4 and 5, the passage of Marie over sharply lower sea surface temperatures should hasten weakening, even though the shear should be relatively low. The intensity forecast late in the period remains above the nearly all the guidance but is closest to SHIPS model output. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 13.7N 104.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 14.2N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 14.9N 108.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 15.5N 110.1W 115 KT 135 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 16.3N 111.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 18.4N 115.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 20.8N 119.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 23.2N 123.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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