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Tropical Storm Maria Forecast Discussion Number 56
2017-09-30 04:38:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 300238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 56 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Maria continues to gradually lose tropical cyclone characteristics as cool and dry air entrains into the western side of the circulation. However, a small area of convection remains to the east of the center, and recent microwave sounding data indicates the cyclone still has a warm core. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a combination of subjective satellite intensity estimates and the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. Maria is now expected to become extratropical in about 24 h, and the system is likely to be absorbed by a larger non-tropical low after the 48-h point. The initial motion is 070/27. Maria is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and should continue to move quickly east-northeast for the remainder of the cyclone's life. The NHC forecast, which is changed little from the previous advisory, incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 38.6N 53.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 40.1N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 42.7N 42.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 01/1200Z 45.6N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 02/0000Z 48.0N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 03/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ Forecaster Beven
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