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Tropical Storm Marie Forecast Discussion Number 28
2020-10-06 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 060233 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 500 PM HST Mon Oct 05 2020 Marie is making one last grasp at holding on to tropical cyclone status. Convection has both deepened and moved closer to the center of the cyclone since the last advisory. Although this convection is still displaced well to the north of Marie's center, it appears to be sufficient to maintain advisories for the moment. The initial intensity of 40 kt is based on earlier ASCAT data, assuming gradual weakening since then. This assessment may be generous, but we will likely get more scatterometer data before the next advisory. Despite its recent marginal convective resurgence, Marie is still moving over cold SSTs and through a hostile environment. It is therefore forecast to become a remnant low within 12 h. The aforementioned ASCAT data showed Marie was still producing a wide area of 35 kt or greater winds, and it will take a little while for the large circulation to spin down. Most of the models indicate that Marie will degenerate into a trough of low pressure in about 4 days, and this is reflected in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.4N 133.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 21.9N 134.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 22.5N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 22.9N 137.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 23.1N 138.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 08/1200Z 23.0N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 22.9N 140.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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