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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 15
2019-09-21 04:42:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 210242 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Fri Sep 20 2019 Recent geostationary imagery from GOES-17 suggests that the center of Mario is located on the northeastern edge of the convective canopy, which is consistent with the northeasterly shear analyzed by UW-CIMSS and the SHIPS model. The initial intensity remains 55 kt based on the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The intensity guidance shows steady weakening during the next 72 hours, with Mario expected to spin down due to persistent moderate to strong shear and a track over cooler SSTs by 48 hours. Deep convection should be gone by 72 hours, and remnant low status is shown by that time, with dissipation expected by 96 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but on the high end of the guidance near the LGEM model. The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 360/04, as the center location has been difficult to pinpoint without any recent microwave imagery. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one, showing Mario moving north-northwestward and then northwestward in the wake of Lorena, and is close to the HCCA and TVCE consensus. While this forecast keeps the center of the weakening Mario offshore of the Baja California peninsula, some impacts there are still possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0300Z 18.4N 110.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 21/1200Z 19.1N 110.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0000Z 20.3N 111.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1200Z 21.8N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 23/0000Z 23.3N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 24/0000Z 26.0N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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