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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 19
2019-09-22 04:54:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 220254 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 PM MDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Mario has been a swirl of low clouds devoid of convection since the last advisory. The initial intensity is reduced to 35 kt based mainly on subjective satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, and passive microwave winds from the WindSat suggests the possibility this is a bit generous. While Mario remains in an area of strong easterly vertical shear, it is still over warm sea surface temperatures and in a relatively moist air mass. Thus, the lack of convection is a little surprising. The intensity forecast will show little change in strength during the next 12 h in anticipation of a convective burst developing near the center during the diurnal maximum. After that time, dry air entrainment and movement over cooler waters should inhibit the development of convection, and the cyclone is forecast to decay into a remnant low by 36 h, if not sooner. The new intensity forecast is again mainly an update of the previous forecast. Mario is now moving a little faster with an initial motion of 350/6 kt. The track guidance is in good agreement on a north- northwestward to northwestward motion through about 48 h, followed by a more northward motion near the 72 h point. Once again, little change was made to the forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 20.3N 110.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 21.3N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 22.7N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 24.1N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 25.3N 113.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0000Z 27.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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