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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 5
2019-09-18 16:33:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Wed Sep 18 2019 Recent microwave imagery shows that the inner core of Mario has become better defined overnight. Both GPM and SSMI overpasses reveal a small low- to mid-level eye feature that is fairly aligned with the low-level center. This places the center well within the convective mass seen in conventional satellite imagery. Based on this recent improvement in organization, the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt, in agreement with the latest SAB Dvorak estimate and UW/CIMSS ADT. Mario has managed to fight off moderate northeasterly shear so far, and with the cyclone traversing warm SSTs during the next day or so, additional strengthening is forecast. The new intensity forecast is above the previous advisory in the short term and brings Mario to hurricane strength within 24 hours. After that time, the anticipated slow motion of the storm could cause some upwelling, so little change in strength is shown in the middle portion of the forecast period, followed by slow weakening. Mario is moving northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the northeast of the cyclone should continue to steer it northwestward during the next day or so. After that time, the track forecast becomes much more uncertain as some of the dynamical models suggest some binary interaction between Mario and Lorena, with Mario turning northeastward as Lorena passes to the northeast and north of Mario. For now, the NHC forecast anticipates less interaction between the two tropical cyclones, and the official forecast is closest to the ECMWF and ECMWF ensemble mean. The medium- to long-range track forecast for Mario is much more uncertain than normal. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 14.5N 111.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 15.4N 112.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 16.2N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 17.0N 113.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 17.4N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 18.3N 113.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 20.2N 114.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 22.3N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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