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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 8
2019-09-19 10:51:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 190851 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 Deep convection has persisted around the center of Mario over the past several hours. However, the improved appearance of the cyclone has not yet resulted in an increase in surface wind speeds, as confirmed by an ASCAT overpass a few hours ago. The initial advisory intensity remains at 55 kt and this is in agreement with the latest objective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB. With the recent increase in organized convection, Mario is likely starting a phase of intensification while over warm waters and in a moist atmospheric environment. However, this strengthening should be limited due to northeasterly shear being aided by outflow from Hurricane Lorena near the Mexico coast. After 36 hours, Mario is forecast to begin moving into a drier and more stable atmospheric environment while still undergoing shear from nearby Lorena. This should cause a gradual weakening trend through 96 hours. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move over cooler waters in the same hostile environment, which should cause it to degenerate to a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast is near the previous one and is on the higher end of the consensus aids. Mario has turned to the north and the initial motion is now 355/6 kt. The combination of weak steering currents, and a possible subtle interaction between Mario's and Lorena's circulation should induce a slow north to north-northeast motion over the next couple of days. After that time, mid-level ridging is expected to develop over northern Mexico which should cause Mario to turn northwestward with an increase in forward speed. The official forecast is near the ECMWF and lies just a little to the right of the previous forecast through the first few days, and very near it thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 15.9N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 16.6N 111.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 17.4N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 17.9N 111.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 18.4N 111.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 20.9N 113.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 23.2N 115.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 25.0N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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