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Tropical Storm Mario Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-19 16:53:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 191453 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142019 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2019 The intensity of Mario is still 55 kt, based on a blend of objective and subjective satellite intensity fixes, but these estimates likely have a higher-than-normal uncertainty. Recent microwave and first-light visible imagery implies that the low-level center of Mario may now be displaced to the east of most of its deep convection, and if this is actually the case, the winds may very well have decreased since the last advisory. Mario is currently embedded within low- to mid-layer southwesterly flow and this should cause the cyclone to move generally northeastward or north-northeastward for the next day or two. What happens after that depends largely on Lorena. The odds that Mario (or its remnants) will directly interact with Lorena (or its remnants) have increased, but it is still unclear whether one cyclone will absorb the other or if they will have a binary interaction and rotate around one another. Confidence in the forecast is therefore low, but will hopefully increase later today after a reconnaissance plane provides more information about the state of Lorena. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the vast guidance envelope and keeps Mario as a distinct system through day 5, but significant changes may be required to the track forecast later today. The intensity forecast is no clearer. Microwave imagery overnight showed that Mario had once again developed a well-defined convective inner-core. However, more recent imagery this morning suggests that the tropical storm has become strongly tilted with height. The poorly organized vertical structure should prevent the cyclone from significant strengthening in the short term and moderate to strong vertical wind shear is expected to continue for the next several days. The official intensity forecast is quite a bit lower than the previous one. It now lies closer to the intensity consensus but it should be noted that it is too soon to completely rule out Mario powering up to hurricane strength at some point during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 16.5N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 17.2N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 18.0N 110.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 19.0N 110.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 20.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 22/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 23/1200Z 24.0N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 24/1200Z 25.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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