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Tropical Storm Max Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-09-14 04:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 140238 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 A 2236Z SSMIS pass showed that Max has a banding mid-level eye, and a partial eye has been noted in radar imagery from Acapulco. Given this improved structure, the initial intensity has been set to 50 kt, leaning toward the latest Dvorak classification from SAB and the UW-CIMSS ADT estimate. Since Max has developed some inner-core structure, further strengthening seems likely, with the only apparent limiting factor being land interaction in 12 to 24 hours. The NHC forecast has been adjusted upward, and now shows Max reaching a 60-kt intensity in 12 h. Since some additional strengthening is possible before landfall, Max could become a hurricane before reaching the coast of Mexico. Quick weakening is forecast after landfall, and Max is expected to dissipate by 36 hours. The initial motion estimate is 065/03. Max should be steered east-northeastward to northeastward toward the coast by a mid-level ridge centered to the tropical cyclone's southeast. The new NHC track has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one, toward the latest consensus aids. Given the new intensity forecast, a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of the southwestern coast of Mexico. In addition to the increased wind threat, Max will produce life-threatening flooding rainfall in portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.3N 101.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.7N 100.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 16.9N 99.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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