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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 11
2019-10-01 04:49:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA MAKES A SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 109.0W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM S OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning south of Altata to San Blas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), data from satellites and surface observations indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located inland near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 109.0 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move near or along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Narda is expected to become a tropical depression by Tuesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. Earlier this evening, a wind gust to at least 39 mph (63 km/h) was measured by a private weather observing site in Culiacan Ejido Canan, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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