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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 12
2019-10-01 10:41:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 010841 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 01 2019 ...NARDA WEAKENING AND POORLY ORGANIZED... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 109.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NW OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUAYMAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 109.7 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move onshore in northwestern mainland Mexico by tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Narda is forecast to become a tropical depression today. On Wednesday, Narda should degenerate into a remnant low and dissipate in northwestern mainland Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning area through today. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 1 to 2 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Heavy rain that fell in Sinaloa Monday night may cause flooding early Tuesday. Otherwise, new rainfall may cause isolated flash flooding over northwest Mexico. Moisture from Narda will spread northeastward across portions of the U.S. Southern Plains for the next few days, enhancing rainfall and the threat for flash flooding in those areas. For additional information, please see excessive rainfall products issued by the NOAA Weather Prediction Center at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Roberts
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