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Tropical Storm Nate Public Advisory Number 7
2017-10-06 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 000 WTNT31 KNHC 060251 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Nate Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162017 1100 PM EDT Thu Oct 05 2017 ...NATE'S CENTER ABOUT TO MOVE OFFSHORE THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS... ...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE U.S. GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 84.7W ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF ISLA GUANAJA HONDURAS ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSE OF COZUMEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, eastward to the Alabama/Florida border, including the northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain. A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana, eastward to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mississippi/Alabama border eastward to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line in Florida. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City, Louisiana. The government of Nicaragua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Nicaragua. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Castilla Honduras to the Honduras/Nicaragua border * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Metropolitan New Orleans * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line * West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in Honduras, the Bay Islands, western Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula, and the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Nate. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nate was located close to the coast of eastern Honduras near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 84.7 West. Nate is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north-northwest is expected overnight, with Nate accelerating along that heading through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Nate will move offshore the eastern coast of Honduras during the next several hours, move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday, and reach the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula Friday evening. Nate will then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and approach the northern Gulf coast Saturday evening. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nate is expected to become a hurricane by the time it reaches the central Gulf of Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) mainly to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Nate is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through this weekend: Southern Honduras and western Nicaragua: 6-10 inches, max 15 inches Eastern El Salvador and northern to central Honduras: 3 to 5 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Yucatan and western Cuba: 2 to 4 inches, max 8 inches Eastern Belize and the Cayman Islands: 1 to 3 inches U.S. Central Gulf Coast states: 3 to 6 inches, max 12 inches Heavy rainfall will occur over a wide area, including locations well away from the center along the Pacific coast of Central America. Rainfall across all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area in Honduras during the next few hours. Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area in Mexico by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Friday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas along the U.S. Gulf coast beginning Saturday evening, with hurricane conditions possible in the hurricane watch area Saturday night. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds on the Yucatan Peninsula and the adjacent islands. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nate will affect land areas around the northwestern Caribbean during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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