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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Advisory Number 7
2021-09-13 22:38:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 000 WTNT24 KNHC 132038 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021 2100 UTC MON SEP 13 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY TEXAS. THE STORM SURGE WATCH FROM BAFFIN BAY TO PORT ARANSAS, TEXAS INCLUDING CORPUS CHRISTI BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TEXAS TO SABINE PASS * GALVESTON BAY...ARANSAS BAY...SAN ANTONIO BAY...AND MATAGORDA BAY A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PORT ARANSAS TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAFFIN BAY TO SABINE PASS A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TO RUTHERFORD BEACH LOUISIANA A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NICHOLAS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 96.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 96.5W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 96.1W...ON THE COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 100SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.4N 94.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.9N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 31.1N 91.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 32.0N 90.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 96.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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