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Tropical Storm Olaf Public Advisory Number 7
2021-09-09 10:54:02| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 192 WTPZ35 KNHC 090853 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Olaf Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 300 AM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...OLAF STILL STRENGTHENING AND FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY... ...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 108.0W ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Baja California Sur from Los Barriles to Santa Fe. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro and north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Santa Fe A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Santa Fe to Cabo San Lazaro * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to San Evaristo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Olaf was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 108.0 West. Olaf is moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward the northwest is forecast by tonight, followed by a slower westward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will approach southern Baja California Sur today, move near or over the southern part of the peninsula tonight and on Friday, and then move westward away from land Friday night and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Olaf is expected to become a hurricane later today. Weakening is forecast to start on Friday when Olaf begins to move away from Baja California Sur. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength by this afternoon or this evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area tonight and will spread northward within the warning area on Friday. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of far southern Baja California Sur today through Friday. This rainfall may trigger flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warnings areas in regions of onshore wind. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are beginning to reach portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
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