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Tropical Storm Oscar Graphics
2024-10-22 04:41:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 02:41:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 22 Oct 2024 02:41:42 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Tropical Storm Oscar Forecast Discussion Number 12
2024-10-22 04:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 000 WTNT41 KNHC 220240 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Oscar Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162024 1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2024 The center of Oscar has emerged off the northern coast of eastern Cuba, but the system is struggling to maintain its identity as a tropical cyclone. The limited convection noted in recent satellite images is displaced over 100 n mi to the east of the center, likely the result of increasing westerly shear and significant intrusions of dry air. Also, satellite images suggest the center could be somewhat elongated compared to earlier today. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters sampled the wind field tonight and recently reported peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 51 kt in clear air to the east of the center. Based on this, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. Oscar has made its anticipated turn and is now moving toward the north-northeast (015/7 kt). A mid-level trough over the southwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Oscar northeastward at a faster speed during the next couple of days. By late Wednesday, Oscar should be absorbed by a larger, non-tropical area of low pressure that is forecast to develop over the western Atlantic. There were no notable changes to the track guidance this cycle, and the NHC track prediction remains similar to the previous one. Based on satellite trends tonight, it seems more unlikely that Oscar will be able to restrengthen given the continued bouts of dry air and stronger shear expected over the next couple of days. As a result, the updated NHC intensity forecast shows Oscar degenerating to a post-tropical low in 24 h, although this could occur even sooner if convection does not redevelop during the upcoming convective maximum period. There is still a threat of additional rainfall producing flash flooding across portions of eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Key Messages: 1. Through Tuesday, additional periods of heavy rainfall may lead to flash flooding and mudslides across portions of eastern Cuba, especially in areas of steep terrain. In addition, localized flash flooding will be possible across the southeastern Bahamas. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas overnight and Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 21.8N 75.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 22.8N 74.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 24.3N 73.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1200Z 26.5N 71.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 24/0000Z 29.3N 68.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 24/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Tropical Storm Oscar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2024-10-22 04:41:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 000 FONT11 KNHC 220240 PWSAT1 TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162024 0300 UTC TUE OCT 22 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OSCAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GREAT EXUMA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAN SALVADOR 34 13 8(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) MAYAGUANA 34 11 8(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER REINHART
Category: Transportation and Logistics