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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 4
2015-10-21 10:40:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 210840 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 0900 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 96.0W AT 21/0900Z AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.2N 97.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.0N 99.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.1N 101.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.5N 103.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 20.5N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 23.0N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 96.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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