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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-10-21 16:38:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 211438 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1500 UTC WED OCT 21 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO PLAYA PERULA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO TECPAN DE GALEANA HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.5W AT 21/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 120SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 97.5W AT 21/1500Z AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 96.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.4N 99.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 101.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.7N 103.1W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.3N 103.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.5N 104.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 97.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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