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Tropical Storm PATRICIA Public Advisory Number 6A
2015-10-22 01:46:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 212346 TCPEP5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 6A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 700 PM CDT WED OCT 21 2015 ...PATRICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY MORNING... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.3N 99.9W ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cabo Corrientes to Punta San Telmo A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East of Lazaro Cardenas to Tecpan De Galeana A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was located near latitude 13.3 North, longitude 99.9 West. Patricia is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A turn toward the northwest is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Patricia should be near the coast of southwestern Mexico on Friday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Patricia is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area by Friday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas by late Thursday or early Friday, and possible within the tropical storm watch area by late Thursday or early Friday. RAINFALL: Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches, over the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero later Thursday into Saturday. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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