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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 4

2021-10-11 04:30:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 110230 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 0300 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA DEL SUR...SINALOA...DURANGO AND NAYARIT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAMELA. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THOSE STATES ON MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.8W AT 11/0300Z AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 106.4W FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 16.5N 108.2W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.6N 109.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.0N 109.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.7N 109.4W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 106.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 90SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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