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Tropical Storm Pamela Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-10-11 16:57:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 111457 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM PAMELA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162021 1500 UTC MON OCT 11 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA SOUTHWARD TO ESCUINAPA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA NORTHWARD TO ALTATA...AND ALSO FROM ESCUINAPA SOUTHWARD TO SAN BLAS...INCLUDING ALL THE ISLA MARIAS ARCHIPELAGO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM LOS BARILLES SOUTHWARD TO CABO SAN LUCAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ESCUINAPA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF BAHIA TEMPEHUAYA TO ALTATA * SOUTH OF ESCUINAPA TO SAN BLAS * ISLA MARIAS * LOS BARILLES TO CABO SAN LUCAS A HURRICANE WARNING AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREAS BY THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 108.1W AT 11/1500Z AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 107.9W FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 17.8N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 19.3N 109.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.1N 108.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 23.3N 107.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.7N 104.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 29.1N 100.8W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 108.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 11/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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