je.st
news
Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 10
2018-09-10 22:34:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 501 WTPZ43 KNHC 102034 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Mon Sep 10 2018 Paul continues to have a rather ragged appearance in satellite imagery. The low-level center is completely exposed to the east of a limited area of deep convection. A pair of recent ASCAT passes showed maximum winds of just below tropical-storm-force, so the initial intensity has been held at 35 kt, assuming at least a little undersampling may have occurred due to limitations of the instrument. All of the intensity guidance continues to show weakening, and Paul is forecast to become a tropical depression later tonight, and a remnant low within the next few days. Given the cold SSTs and dry air ahead of Paul, it is certainly possible that Paul could become a remnant low or dissipate sooner than currently forecast. No major changes have been made to the previous official track forecast. Paul is still moving toward the northwest with an initial motion of 315/9 kt, but a turn toward the west-northwest should begin shortly as Paul is steered increasingly by low-level trade-wind flow. By the end of the forecast period, the remnant circulation of Paul should slow down and turn westward. The new official track forecast is basically a blend of the previous forecast and HCCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 21.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 11/0600Z 21.8N 122.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 11/1800Z 22.2N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 12/0600Z 22.6N 126.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1800Z 22.9N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/1800Z 23.5N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos
Tags: number
discussion
paul
storm
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||