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Tropical Storm Paul Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-09 22:31:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 880 WTPZ43 KNHC 092031 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Paul Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182018 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 09 2018 ASCAT data from shortly before 1800 UTC indicated that Paul was slightly stronger than previously estimated, with several 35-40 kt vectors observed in the southeast quadrant. Based on this data, the initial intensity has been increased to 40 kt. In an effort to maintain some continuity, and since the ASCAT data nearly supports 45 kt, very slight strengthening is still forecast over the next 24 h, but little change in strength is realistically expected. Beginning in a day or two, a combination of dry, stable air, and decreasing SSTs should cause Paul to gradually weaken, eventually causing the cyclone to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one, but is still near the high end of the intensity guidance. It is certainly possible Paul could weaken sooner than currently indicated. Paul has sped up slightly but is still moving northwestward, now at around 9 kt. Almost no change has been made to the official track forecast. Paul should continue moving northwestward for the next day or so, before gradually turning toward the west as the weakening cyclone becomes increasingly steered by low-level easterly flow to the north. The track guidance is in reasonably good agreement through about 72 h, at which point there are differences mainly related to how fast the cyclone will weaken. The NHC forecast remains close to HCCA and the other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 18.5N 118.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 19.5N 119.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 20.5N 120.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 21.4N 122.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 21.9N 124.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 22.8N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 23.5N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 23.5N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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