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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 28
2018-10-02 04:42:45| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 201 WTPZ45 KNHC 020242 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 800 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 Rosa continues to lack deep convection near the center, which is currently over sea surface temperatures of 21C. However, strong convection is occurring to the northeast of the center over the northern Gulf of California and the adjacent land areas. The Mexican automated station at Isla Cedros reported 30 kt winds with gusts near 40 kt a few hours ago, and passive microwave data suggests the strongest winds in the cyclone are currently moving onshore south of Punta Eugenia where no surface observations are available. The initial intensity is kept at 35 kt, and it is possible that this is generous. Rosa should weaken as it crosses Baja California, but it is likely the warm water of the Gulf of California will maintain the system as a tropical cyclone until final landfall in northwestern Mexico. After that landfall, Rosa should quickly degenerate into a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. The initial motion is 035/9. Rosa should move generally northeastward between a deep-layer ridge over northern Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the northeastern Pacific until the cyclone dissipates. The dynamical models suggests the possibility that the center of Rosa will reform over the Gulf of California in the next 12 h, which may lead to some erratic changes in the forward speed. Key Messages: 1. The main hazard expected from Rosa or its remnants is very heavy rainfall in Baja California, northwestern Sonora, and the U.S. Desert Southwest. These rains are expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding and debris flows in the deserts, and landslides in mountainous terrain. For more information about potential rainfall in that area, please see products from the Weather Prediction Center and your local NWS forecast office. 2. Tropical storm conditions are affecting portions of the central and northern Baja California peninsula, especially over higher elevations. These conditions could spread into the northern Gulf of California later tonight. Interests in those locations should monitor the progress of Rosa. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 28.9N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 30.8N 114.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 33.5N 113.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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