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Tropical Storm Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 3
2018-09-25 22:54:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 927 WTPZ45 KNHC 252054 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Rosa Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 300 PM MDT Tue Sep 25 2018 Rosa has become better organized this afternoon. An earlier 1601 UTC GMI microwave image showed impressive banding features in the south semicircle with a banding eye type feature wrapping three quarters around the center of circulation. A blend of the Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB yield an initial intensity of 45 kt for this advisory. Although there is some modest northeasterly shear impinging in the northeast side of the cyclone, the SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that this shear will diminish in 12 hours. Subsequently, the SHIPS RI index and the DTOPS model indicate a relatively high probability of rapid intensification in 24 hours. Accordingly, the NHC forecast calls for Rosa to become a hurricane in 12 hours based on these data. Further strengthening through the 72 hour period is expected and is based on the IVCN multi-model intensity consensus. Beyond day 3, gradual weakening is expected due to increasing shear and slightly cooler waters. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290 at 8 kt, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the next 3 days south of a mid-level ridge extending from northern Mexico westward over the eastern Pacific. In response to a mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest, Rosa should turn towards the northwest to north over the weekend. It is worth noting that there is considerable along and cross-track spread in the track guidance beyond day 3. Therefore, the official track forecast follows the TVCN consensus, which lies in between the left and right global model outlier clusters. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 15.0N 108.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 15.4N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 15.9N 111.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 16.3N 113.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 16.5N 114.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 17.3N 118.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 19.2N 120.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 120H 30/1800Z 21.7N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Ramos/Roberts
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