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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 25
2018-10-01 10:38:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 448 WTPZ35 KNHC 010838 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 AM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... ...FLOODING, DEBRIS FLOWS, AND LANDSLIDES POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE WESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 117.0W ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM WSW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 117.0 West. Rosa is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will approach the central and northern Baja California peninsula later today and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to dissipate over northwestern Mexico or the southwestern United States by Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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