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Tropical Storm Rosa Public Advisory Number 27
2018-10-01 22:36:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 183 WTPZ35 KNHC 012036 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rosa Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 200 PM PDT Mon Oct 01 2018 ...ROSA EXPECTED TO CROSS THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA TONIGHT... ...BRINGING FLOODING RAINS TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, SONORA, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.1N 116.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSW OF SAN FELIPE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Abreojos to Cabo San Quintin A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Bahia de los Angeles to San Felipe Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Rosa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rosa was located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 116.2 West. Rosa is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Rosa will be near the coast of the Baja California peninsula within the warning area later today and then move across the peninsula into the northern Gulf of California tonight. Rosa's remnants are then expected to move across the Desert Southwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast through tonight while Rosa approaches and moves over the northern Baja California peninsula. Rosa is expected to become a remnant low over the southwestern United States on Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rosa is expected to produce the following total rainfall accumulations through Wednesday morning: Baja California and northwestern Sonora: 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Central and Southern Arizona: 2 to 4 inches. Isolated 6 inch totals are possible in the mountains of Central Arizona. Rest of the Desert Southwest, Central Rockies, and Great Basin: 1 to 2 inches, isolated 4 inches. These rainfall amounts may produce life-threatening flash flooding. Dangerous debris flows and landslides are also possible in mountainous terrain. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely occuring over the coast in portions of the warning area. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late this afternoon or tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Rosa will affect portions of the coasts of southwestern Mexico, most of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula, and southern California through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM PDT. Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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