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Tropical Storm SIMON Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-10-06 22:44:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 062044 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014 200 PM PDT MON OCT 06 2014 Although the tropical cyclone has very little deep convection remaining, a recent ASCAT overpass indicated that the system had not weakened as much as earlier estimated. Data from that pass showed that the current intensity is about 45 kt. Water vapor imagery shows quite a bit of southwesterly shear affecting Simon at this time, and dynamical models show the shear becoming even stronger within a day or two. The official intensity forecast is above most of the numerical guidance and shows the system degenerating into a remnant low in 24 hours. However, since the ASCAT data revealed a slightly larger and stronger cyclone, and considering the uncertainties in the forecast track, it is prudent to issue a tropical storm watch for a portion of the west coast of the Baja peninsula at this time. The motion continues about the same as before, or 010/6 kt. There is little change to the track forecast or reasoning. Simon is moving around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high pressure area. An approaching shortwave trough should cause the tropical cyclone or its remnant low to move north-northeastward over the next couple of days. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, with the former guidance farther north and the latter guidance farther south. Even if Simon or its remnant circulation does not make it across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture associated with this system is expected to spread across the northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those regions during the next few days. Please refer to statements from your local weather office for information on hazards specific to your area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 25.8N 117.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 26.8N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 28.0N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 08/0600Z 29.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/1800Z 30.2N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/1800Z 32.0N 112.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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