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Tropical Storm Sergio Public Advisory Number 52A
2018-10-12 13:38:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121138 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sergio Intermediate Advisory Number 52A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212018 600 AM MDT Fri Oct 12 2018 ...SERGIO CROSSING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND WEAKENING FAST... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 112.8W ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SW OF SANTA ROSALIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...70 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of the Baja California peninsula from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro * East coast of the Baja California peninsula from Mulege to Bahia San Juan Bautista A Tropical Storm Warning means in this case that tropical storm conditions are occurring somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in the northern and central Baja California peninsula and northwestern Sonora should monitor the progress of Sergio. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sergio was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 112.8 West. Sergio is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center of Sergio will continue to cross the central portion of the Baja California peninsula this morning, and then move over mainland northwestern Mexico later tonight. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (70 km/h) with higher gusts. Sergio should weaken to a tropical depression later today, and degenerate into a remnant low while moving over northwestern Mexico. Dissipation should occur Saturday night or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Sergio is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches over Sonora and the central peninsula of Baja California through today. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Moisture from Sergio will affect the United States, with total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches from southeast Arizona and southern New Mexico toward the southern Plains through Saturday. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring in the warning area of the Baja California peninsula, and these conditions will spread northeastward this morning. Gusty winds could reach the coast of mainland Mexico tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Sergio will affect much of the Baja California peninsula today, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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