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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-20 22:33:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 202032 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Peter's evolution on satellite today is nearly a repeat of yesterday, with the deep convection having been stripped well east of the center in the morning and then redeveloping over and east of the center by the afternoon. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Peter this morning and early afternoon provided data during a few different passes through the northeast quadrant that supported peak surface winds of 40-45 kt. Since the convection has returned it is reasonable to assume that no weakening has occurred since the aircraft departed the cyclone, and the initial advisory intensity remains 45 kt. Vertical wind shear is forecast to remain near 30 kt for the next few days as Peter interacts with an upper trough to its west, so some weakening is anticipated during that time. By late in the forecast period, the shear should lessen somewhat as the cyclone lifts north of the upper trough. Therefore, slow strengthening is indicated by late this week. There remains a possibility that Peter does not survive the shear over the next few days. However, the storm thus far has shown some resiliency to the hostile environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains near the various intensity consensus solutions. Peter continues to move west-northwest but at a slightly slower pace of around 12 kt. The forecast track reasoning for the cyclone remains the same. The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States. There were no significant changes to the track or the track guidance from the previous advisory, and the latest NHC track is closest to the TVCN and GFEX consensus tracks. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/2100Z 20.0N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0600Z 20.6N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 21/1800Z 21.4N 65.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0600Z 22.2N 66.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 22/1800Z 23.1N 68.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0600Z 24.0N 68.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/1800Z 25.1N 68.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1800Z 27.8N 66.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1800Z 30.5N 65.8W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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MCOOL discussion heats up again
2021-09-20 19:45:00| Beef
Congressmen and beef industry leaders weigh in on reinstating Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling.
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 6
2021-09-20 16:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 201447 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 While a cursory look at visible satellite images would suggest Rose is intensifying, other data show that it remains a sheared storm. The low- and mid-level centers remain roughly 90 n mi apart according to SSMIS microwave, and a 1038Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass showed no significant change in intensity overnight. The current wind speed is kept at 35 kt, with a much heavier weight on the 30-kt scatterometer pass than Dvorak estimates near 55 kt. This is a good example of the value of the scatterometer which can tell the forecaster much more about the surface winds that conventional satellite estimates can miss (even if the data is possibly too low with all the thunderstorm activity). There are a lot of thorns in the way of Rose blossoming into a stronger storm. Increasing shear and drier mid-level air are on the way for tonight, competing against the somewhat warm SSTs. Thus Rose has about a day to flower into a moderate tropical storm, and no significant change was made to the short term forecast. At longer range, stronger shear and dry air should pull the petals off Rose one-by-one, causing the cyclone to slowly weaken. The new forecast is similar to the previous one, with some small 5-kt downward adjustments. Rose could even shrivel up into a remnant low by day 5, but that's not shown yet in the forecast. The initial motion remains northwestward at about 14 kt. Rose is still expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. Around day 3, however, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward and eventually northeastward by the weekend. Guidance is in much better agreement on this scenario than the last cycle (though there are still some westward model solutions), and the new NHC track forecast is shifted northeastward at long range. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 17.3N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 19.0N 34.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 21.0N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 22.6N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 24.1N 38.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 25.4N 39.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 26.7N 40.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 29.0N 40.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 31.0N 38.0W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-20 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 201444 TCDAT1 Tropical Storm Peter Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 West-southwesterly vertical wind shear on the order of 30 kt is pummeling Peter this morning. Just like yesterday morning, the low-level center of the storm is pulling away from the deep convection and is now displaced greater than 80 n mi. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been investigating Peter this morning and has measured peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 54 kt and several SFMR values of 40-45 kt, supporting keeping the initial intensity at 45 kt for this advisory. Peter refuses to slow down, and for the past several hours has been moving 290/14 kt. This west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue for the next two days as the system remains to the southwest of a subtropical ridge. By Wednesday, Peter should slow down and turn northwest then north as it reaches a developing weakness in the ridge carved out by a mid-latitude trough moving across the northeastern United States later this week. The model track guidance has shifted slightly left for the 24-72 h time frames, and the NHC forecast track was nudged in that direction as well. Otherwise, the latest NHC forecast track is little changed from the previous one. An upper-level trough to the west of Peter is forecast to remain near the cyclone for the next few days, keeping the storm in a high-shear environment. Therefore, despite being over warm waters the storm is forecast to slowly weaken. If Peter survives the next 72 h, there could be a window of opportunity late in the forecast period for some modest strengthening as the cyclone would have lifted to the north of the upper trough. It should be noted that a vast majority of the GFS ensembles show Peter dissipating later this week as the system opens into a wave. This scenario is plausible, especially if deep convection fails to persist near the center of the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast assumes Peter survives, and closely follows the various intensity consensus solutions. Based on the latest track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, no tropical storm watches or warnings are required for the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, or Puerto Rico at this time. However, locally heavy rain is possible today and Tuesday when Peter is expected to pass to the north of these locations. Key Messages: 1. Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding through Tuesday across northern Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and the Northern Leeward Islands. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 19.5N 60.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 20.8N 64.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 21.8N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 22.7N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 23.5N 68.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 24.5N 68.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 26.5N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 28.6N 66.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Discussion Number 5
2021-09-20 10:59:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 000 WTNT42 KNHC 200859 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Rose Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 500 AM AST Mon Sep 20 2021 Rose remains a sheared tropical storm with the low-level center located near the eastern edge of the convective cloud mass based on an earlier 0359Z AMSR2 microwave overpass. These same data also revealed that a well-defined mid-level circulation center was located about 80-90 nmi west of the low-level center, an indication of the magnitude and effect of the mid-level shear impinging on the cyclone. The intensity of 35 kt is being maintained for this advisory based on subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 35 from both TAFB and SAB. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS are higher at 45-55 kt, which are considered to be unrepresentative due to the severe westward tilt of Rose's vortex column. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 315/13 kt. Rose is expected to move generally northwestward around the southwestern and western periphery of a strong subtropical ridge during the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a mid- to upper-level trough over the north-central Atlantic is forecast to dig southeastward, causing the cyclone to turn northward. The latest NHC model guidance remains in excellent agreement on this track scenario through 72 hours, but then diverge significantly thereafter owing to whether Rose weakens to shallow system or remains a little stringer and deeper. The weaker solutions go more toward the northwest and the stronger solutions take Rose northeastward. The NHC forecast track on days 4 and 5 is a blend of these two extremes. Rose only has about 24 hours over warm waters and in a weak vertical wind shear regime that will allow for some addition strengthening to occur. On days 2-5, however, increasing westerly shear is expected to induce some gradual weakening. Rose is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by 96 hours, although some of the models suggest that weakening could occur faster than indicated below, and that Rose could degenerate into a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0900Z 15.9N 32.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 20/1800Z 17.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 21/0600Z 19.8N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/1800Z 21.7N 36.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 22/0600Z 23.0N 37.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 22/1800Z 24.2N 38.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 23/0600Z 25.2N 39.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 24/0600Z 27.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 120H 25/0600Z 29.2N 40.6W 25 KT 30 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart
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