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Tropical Depression Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-09-15 04:35:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150235 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Nicholas Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Satellite imagery, radar data, and surface observation indicate that the center of Nicholas is over the Beaumont/Port Arthur area of southeastern Texas. The cyclone is currently comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level clouds and showers, with a few patches of deep convection well removed from the center. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a combination of Doppler radar data and surface obs, and these winds are mainly over water to the southeast of the center. Nicholas should continue to weaken due to strong shear, dry air entrainment, and land interaction, and the cyclone is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low after 24 h and dissipate completely by 72 h. It should be noted that some of the track guidance models show enough south of east motion to bring the center back over the Gulf of Mexico in a day or two. However, even if this should occur the shear and dry air should prevent any re-development. The initial motion is 060/5. While there is some spread in the guidance, it generally agrees on a slow eastward motion for 36 h or so, followed by a northward drift. The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous track. Although the winds associated with Nicholas are subsiding, due to the forecast slow motion, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. The is the last advisory on Nicholas issued by the National Hurricane Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will diminish tonight. 3. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for a few more hours along portion of the Louisiana and upper Texas coasts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 30.0N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 30.2N 93.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 30.2N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 30.4N 92.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/1200Z 31.5N 92.6W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-09-14 22:56:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 142056 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 PM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that the intensity of Nicholas has remained steady over the past several hours despite having moved a little farther inland over the upper Texas coastal plain. Both satellite and radar data also indicate that the overall circulation has tightened up somewhat, although a large swath of stable low clouds have advected into most of the southern semicircle of Nicholas' circulation. The highest sustained wind speeds of 34-36 kt have occurred in a narrow band of fragmented, shallow convection between Sabine Pass, Texas, and Cameron, Louisiana, during the past couple of hours. Doppler radar velocity data from Lake Charles has also indicated wind speeds of 40-45 at 3,000 ft altitude just offshore the southwestern coast of Louisiana. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity is set at 35 kt. The estimated central pressure of 1003 mb is based on nearby surface observations, especially the reports from the Eagle Point, Texas, C-MAN station, which indicate that the center of Nicholas passed over or near that station between 1800-1900 UTC. As Nicholas moves farther inland, gradual weakening is forecast due to land interaction, entrainment of drier and more stable low- and mid-level air, and strong westerly vertical wind shear in excess of 30 kt. Nicholas is forecast to become a tropical depression later this evening and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday or early Thursday. The initial motion estimate is east-northeastward or 070 degrees at 5 kt. Nicholas is forecast by most of the global and regional models continue its east-east-northeastward motion through tonight, followed by an eastward motion at a slower forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday. Nicholas could still stall over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses on Thursday. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous advisory track, and lies near the consensus track models TCVA and NOAA-HCCA. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will gradually subside, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast for the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas across southern and central Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle through early Friday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Widespread minor to isolated moderate river flooding is also possible. 2. Storm surge inundation along the coasts of upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana will gradually diminish into tonight. 3. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area long portions of the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts will gradually subside by this evening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 29.6N 94.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0600Z 29.8N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z 30.0N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0600Z 30.1N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 17/0600Z 30.9N 92.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 10
2021-09-14 16:57:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 141457 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Doppler weather radar data from Houston and Lake Charles, along with surface observations, indicate that Nicholas has continued to weaken while moving farther inland. The strongest winds recently reported near the Texas and Louisiana coasts have been 33-35 kt at a TCOON observing station near Sabine Pass, Texas. The strongest winds over water south of southwestern Louisiana are based on Doppler radar average velocities of 45-50 kt between 5000-7500 ft. Based on these wind data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 40 kt. The estimated central pressure of 1002 mb is based on nearby surface observations in the Houston metropolitan area. Further weakening is expected as Nicholas moves farther inland due to frictional effects, entrainment of very dry mid-level air from the southern Plains, and increasing southwesterly to westerly shear. The latter condition is expected to cause the low- and upper-level circulation to decouple in about 24 hours, which will hasten the weakening process. No significant changes were made to the previous intensity forecast, and Nicholas is now expected to become a tropical depression by tonight and degenerate into a remnant low by late Wednesday. Nicholas is now moving northeastward or 050 degrees at a slower forward speed of 5 kt. The cyclone should gradually turn toward the east-northeast by tonight, and move eastward more slowly on Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible that Nicholas could stall over southwestern or central Louisiana as the low-level steering flow collapses. The new NHC track forecast is similar to but slightly slower than the previous advisory tack. Although the winds associated with Nicholas will be weakening, heavy rainfall and a significant flash flood risk will continue along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi, far southern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle through Thursday. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Bolivar to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along the Louisiana coast into this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions in the warning area across the upper Texas coast will diminish this afternoon as Nicholas moves farther to the northeast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 29.6N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/0000Z 30.1N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1200Z 30.4N 93.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 30.4N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 30.5N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 60H 17/0000Z 30.9N 92.8W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-09-14 10:57:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140856 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Nicholas Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 400 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021 Radar and surface observations indicate that Nicholas has continued to move slowly inland and has weakened during the past few hours, with the strongest winds now located near southern Galveston Bay. The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, perhaps generously. Additional weakening is anticipated as Nicholas moves over land, with increasing southwesterly shear also assisting this process. No significant changes were made to the intensity forecast. The storm is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt, and should gradually turn northeastward and eastward during the next day or so. Nicholas is likely to slow to a crawl over Louisiana on Wednesday as it loses any significant steering. The new track forecast is similar to the previous one, but a smidge faster. While the exact track is tough to pin down due to inconsistent model forecasts, most guidance shows a significant flash flood risk along the Gulf Coast during the next couple of days. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact areas from the upper coast of Texas, across Louisiana, southern Mississippi and far southern Alabama through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding across these areas. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Sargent to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast today and along the southwestern Louisiana coast by afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 29.3N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 12H 14/1800Z 29.9N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0600Z 30.3N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z 30.4N 93.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0600Z 30.4N 92.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1800Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Nicholas Forecast Discussion Number 8
2021-09-14 05:05:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 019 WTNT44 KNHC 140305 TCDAT4 Hurricane Nicholas Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142021 1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 13 2021 Very recently, a WeatherFlow Station at Matagorda Bay, Texas, reported sustained winds of 66 kt with a gust to 83 kt. Based on this observation, Nicholas is being upgraded to a hurricane on this advisory, and a Hurricane Warning is issued. No additional strengthening is anticipated until the system makes landfall, and gradual weakening is expected during the next 2-3 days while Nicholas moves over southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana. Nicholas is moving north-northeastward, or around 020/10 kt. The system is currently moving through a weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge. Within 12 to 24 hours, after Nicholas has moved inland, the ridge is forecast to weaken and leave Nicholas in an area of light steering currents. As a result, during the next couple of days, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and slow to a crawl near southwestern Louisiana. The official forecast is slower than the previous one, but not as slow as the new model consensus. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of southeastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Mississippi through the middle of the week. Significant rainfall amounts are expected, potentially resulting in areas of life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along the eastern Texas coast into southwestern Louisiana. Minor to isolated major river flooding is also possible in smaller river basins and urban areas. 2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation along the coast of Texas from Port Aransas to Sabine Pass. Residents in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials. 3. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area and Tropical storm conditions are expected with the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Texas coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 29.6N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/0000Z 30.2N 94.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1200Z 30.3N 93.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/0000Z 30.3N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 60H 16/1200Z 30.3N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z 30.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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