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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy (AT5/AL202020)
2020-09-23 13:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TEDDY CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... As of 8:00 AM AST Wed Sep 23 the center of Teddy was located near 44.8, -62.3 with movement NNE at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Public Advisory Number 44A
2020-09-23 13:45:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT35 KNHC 231145 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Intermediate Advisory Number 44A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 800 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 ...TEDDY CAUSING DESTRUCTIVE WAVES, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.8N 62.3W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM SW OF PORT AUX BASQUES NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * South coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Meat Cove * Port aux Basques to Francois Newfoundland A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Meat Cove to Tidnish Nova Scotia * North of Digby to Fort Lawrence Nova Scotia * Magdalen Islands Quebec * Prince Edward Island A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area. Interests elsewhere in Atlantic Canada should closely monitor the progress of Teddy. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy was located near latitude 44.8 North, longitude 62.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this motion with an increase in forward speed is expected for the next day or so. On the forecast track, the center will move over eastern Nova Scotia soon, and then near or over Newfoundland by tonight, and be east of Labrador on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, but Teddy should remain a strong post-tropical cyclone while passing over Nova Scotia and near Newfoundland. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 520 miles (835 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) were recently reported at Hart Island along the eastern coast of Nova Scotia. The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall in Nova Scotia. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by very large and destructive waves. SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting Bermuda, the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Nova Scotia warning area. Tropical storm conditions could begin in the watch areas later this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Newfoundland warning area this afternoon. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Teddy is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm) with isolated totals of 6 inches (150 mm) across sections of Atlantic Canada. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Discussion Number 44
2020-09-23 11:19:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230918 CCA TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Discussion Number 44...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202020 500 AM AST Wed Sep 23 2020 Corrected status at 48H Teddy's deep convection has been diminishing, but based on buoy observations the cyclone still has a strong circulation with a central pressure in the 950's. Assuming a gradual spindown of the system since the earlier aircraft observations, the estimated maximum winds have dropped to just below hurricane strength. The system is expected to traverse Nova Scotia today as a strong extratropical cyclone, and move near Newfoundland by tonight. After passing east of Labrador on Thursday, the global models show Teddy merging with another large extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The estimated initial motion is north-northeastward or 025/20 kt. Teddy is embedded within a deep-layer trough that is located in the vicinity of Atlantic Canada. The post-tropical cyclone should move north-northeastward on the eastern side of the trough for the next 36-48 hours before it merges with the other low. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous one and also closely follows the corrected multi-model consensus, HCCA. Even after Teddy passes Nova Scotia and Newfoundland, large swells will linger over much of the southwestern Atlantic basin for the next few days. Key Messages: 1. Teddy is expected remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone while it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada through tonight. The most significant hazard expected from Teddy is large destructive waves forecast along the southern coast of Nova Scotia today. 2. Very large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions of Bermuda, the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. 3. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect for portions of Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, Prince Edward Island and the Magdalen Islands, and heavy rainfall across Atlantic Canada is expected through Thursday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 44.5N 62.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 25/0600Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Graphics
2020-09-23 10:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:54:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Sep 2020 08:54:30 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Teddy Forecast Advisory Number 44
2020-09-23 10:52:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 230852 TCMAT5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TEDDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202020 0900 UTC WED SEP 23 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM DIGBY TO MEAT COVE * PORT AUX BASQUES TO FRANCOIS NEWFOUNDLAND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEAT COVE TO TIDNISH NOVA SCOTIA * NORTH OF DIGBY TO FORT LAWRENCE NOVA SCOTIA * MAGDALEN ISLANDS QUEBEC * PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN ATLANTIC CANADA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TEDDY. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT.......240NE 120SE 120SW 200NW. 34 KT.......450NE 360SE 250SW 250NW. 12 FT SEAS..600NE 720SE 960SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.5N 62.7W AT 23/0900Z AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.5N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 47.5N 60.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...300NE 300SE 200SW 200NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 52.3N 56.7W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 57.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.5N 62.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 23/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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