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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 42
2019-09-03 22:49:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 032049 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 Dorian has finally begun a more definitive northwestward motion this afternoon. The satellite presentation of the hurricane is slightly better in one-minute GOES 16 imagery with the large eye becoming a little more apparent. The eye has also become better defined in NWS Doppler radar from Melbourne, Florida. Reconnaissance aircraft data continue to show an expansion of the tropical-storm and 50-kt wind radii, and it is likely that the area of hurricane-force winds will also increase somewhat during the next 24-36 hours. The initial intensity remains 95 kt, and is a blend of the earlier reconnaissance data and the latest satellite estimates. Dorian will be moving northwestward over untapped waters east of the Florida peninsula, which may lead to some structural re-organization, but little overall change in intensity is expected during the next couple of days. After that time, a gradual decrease in the peak wind speed and an increase in storm size are predicted while the vertical shear increases and the storm moves farther north. An approaching mid-latitude trough and front will begin interacting with the hurricane on Saturday and Dorian is forecast to become a powerful extratropical low by 120 hours. Dorian is now moving northwestward or 325/5 kt. The deep-layer trough along the east coast of the United States is expected to amplify on Wednesday, which should cause Dorian to move at a slightly faster north-northwestward motion tonight and Wednesday. After that time, Dorian should turn northward, and then north- northeastward ahead of a shortwave trough moving into the eastern United States. Once Dorian is offshore of eastern North Carolina, it should accelerate northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. The track envelope has edged closer to the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina and the NHC track has been adjusted in that direction. A track that close to the coast, even if landfall does not occur, is likely to bring dangerous winds, life-threatening storm surge, and flooding rains across the eastern portions of the Carolinas. Key Messages: 1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center. Water levels could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency officials. 2. The risk of wind and rain impacts along portions of the Virginia coast and the southern Chesapeake Bay are increasing. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian. 3. The flash flood threat will increase tonight along the Florida east coast and then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the middle and latter part of the week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 27.7N 78.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 31.4N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 32.6N 79.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 08/1800Z 50.0N 55.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 42
2019-09-03 22:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 032049 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 03 2019 ...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF VERO BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward to Surf City, North Carolina. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward to Duck, North Carolina, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers. A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, and from South Santee River, South Carolina, to Surf City, North Carolina. The Hurricane Watch has been extended north of Duck, North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia border. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the North Carolina/Virginia border northward to Chincoteague, Virginia, and for the Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward. The Hurricane Warning has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning from Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet, Florida. The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of Jupiter Inlet. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Jupiter Inlet FL to Surf City NC A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City NC to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds * Neuse and Pamlico Rivers A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Sebastian Inlet FL to Ponte Vedra Beach FL * North of Savannah River to Surf City NC A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * North of Surf City NC to the North Carolina/Virginia border * Albemarle and Pamlico Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * North of Ponte Vedra Beach FL to Savannah River * Jupiter Inlet FL to Sebastian Inlet FL A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The North Carolina/Virginia border to Chincoteague VA * Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point southward A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the Mid-Atlantic coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required tonight and Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 78.7 West. Dorian is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a slightly faster motion toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight. A turn toward the north is forecast by Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast Thursday morning. On this track, the core of Hurricane Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast tonight through Wednesday night. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Dorian has become a larger hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm- force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km). The latest minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve reconnaissance data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue on Grand Bahama Island and along the Treasure Coast of Florida tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin within the Tropical Storm Warning area in north Florida and Georgia late tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida overnight. Tropical Storm conditions will begin within the Hurricane Warning area in the Carolinas Wednesday, with hurricane conditions by Wednesday night. STORM SURGE: Water levels should very slowly subside on Grand Bahamas Island and the Abaco Islands through tonight. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Savannah River to Cape Lookout NC...4 to 7 ft Volusia/Brevard County Line FL to Savannah River...3 to 5 ft Cape Lookout NC to Duck NC, including Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds and the Neuse and Pamlico Rivers...3 to 5 ft Jupiter Inlet FL to Volusia/Brevard County Line FL...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin to rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Friday: Northwestern Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals over 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula north of West Palm Beach through Georgia and across southeast Virginia...3 to 6 inches This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas, and the entire southeastern United States coast from Florida through North Carolina during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible near the immediate east coast of Florida through tonight. This risk will shift to along the immediate coastal Georgia and the coastal Carolinas on Wednesday into Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 42
2019-09-03 22:49:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 032049 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 53(53) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 62(63) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 56(57) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 49(54) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 60(65) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 46(62) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 22(25) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 34(49) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) 7(43) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 6(19) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 16(21) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MONCTON NB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) EASTPORT ME 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CONCORD NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) X(30) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 39(40) X(40) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) X(16) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) X(24) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) X(11) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 7(28) X(28) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 8(37) X(37) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 2(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 3(22) X(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) X(15) X(15) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 2(32) X(32) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 2(36) X(36) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 35(38) 1(39) X(39) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 45(50) 1(51) X(51) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) X(17) X(17) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 7(15) X(15) X(15) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 16(26) X(26) X(26) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 29(38) X(38) X(38) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 70(85) 1(86) X(86) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 58(58) 1(59) X(59) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) X(35) X(35) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 20(26) 22(48) X(48) X(48) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 6(17) X(17) X(17) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 60(78) 1(79) X(79) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) X(42) X(42) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 9( 9) 22(31) 55(86) X(86) X(86) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 58(60) X(60) X(60) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 38(38) X(38) X(38) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 10(10) 26(36) 51(87) X(87) X(87) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 57(60) X(60) X(60) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 35(36) X(36) X(36) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 29(36) 47(83) X(83) X(83) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) X(47) X(47) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) X(16) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 34(43) 41(84) X(84) X(84) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 39(47) X(47) X(47) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) X(14) X(14) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 7( 7) 28(35) 39(74) 19(93) X(93) X(93) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) 41(70) X(70) X(70) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 35(45) X(45) X(45) FLORENCE SC 34 X 4( 4) 12(16) 32(48) 10(58) X(58) X(58) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 6(14) X(14) X(14) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 4( 4) 11(15) 16(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 5( 5) 15(20) 45(65) 21(86) X(86) X(86) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 27(51) X(51) X(51) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 8( 9) 41(50) 36(86) 8(94) X(94) X(94) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 21(66) X(66) X(66) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 17(36) X(36) X(36) GEORGETOWN SC 34 2 3( 5) 39(44) 40(84) 7(91) X(91) X(91) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 11(56) X(56) X(56) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 6( 8) 59(67) 22(89) 2(91) X(91) X(91) CHARLESTON SC 50 X 1( 1) 19(20) 33(53) 3(56) X(56) X(56) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 15(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 2 12(14) 61(75) 11(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 28(29) 15(44) X(44) X(44) X(44) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 10(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 18(20) 53(73) 6(79) 1(80) X(80) X(80) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 1( 1) 22(23) 6(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) KINGS BAY GA 34 4 57(61) 16(77) 2(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) KINGS BAY GA 50 1 8( 9) 12(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) WAYCROSS GA 34 2 13(15) 15(30) 4(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 19 67(86) 7(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MAYPORT NS FL 50 2 31(33) 15(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X 6( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSONVILLE 34 4 54(58) 11(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) JACKSONVILLE 50 1 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) JACKSONVILLE 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GAINESVILLE FL 34 3 15(18) 4(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) GAINESVILLE FL 50 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 66 21(87) 1(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) DAYTONA BEACH 50 2 12(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) THE VILLAGES 34 6 10(16) 3(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 34 38 7(45) 2(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) ORLANDO FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COCOA BEACH FL 34 93 X(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) COCOA BEACH FL 50 18 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) COCOA BEACH FL 64 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PATRICK AFB 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) PATRICK AFB 50 7 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) W PALM BEACH 34 34 2(36) 2(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) FT LAUDERDALE 34 5 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) MIAMI FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) MARATHON FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 34 3 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CEDAR KEY FL 34 4 9(13) 5(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 2( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ST MARKS FL 34 2 2( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 1 4( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 42
2019-09-03 22:48:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 032048 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS AND THE NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS. A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SAVANNAH RIVER TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA AND FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTH OF DUCK NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD. THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * JUPITER INLET FL TO SURF CITY NC A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO DUCK NC * PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS * NEUSE AND PAMLICO RIVERS A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SEBASTIAN INLET FL TO PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL * NORTH OF SAVANNAH RIVER TO SURF CITY NC A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER * NORTH OF SURF CITY NC TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER * ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * NORTH OF PONTE VEDRA BEACH FL TO SAVANNAH RIVER * JUPITER INLET FL TO SEBASTIAN INLET FL A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CHINCOTEAGUE VA * CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SMITH POINT SOUTHWARD A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 78.7W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT. 64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 45NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 100SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 78.7W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 78.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 28.7N 79.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.4N 80.0W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 150SE 110SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 32.6N 79.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 36.1N 74.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. 34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 50.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.7N 78.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 04/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-03 21:56:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...WINDS INCREASING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST... ...NEW WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED... As of 5:00 PM EDT Tue Sep 3 the center of Dorian was located near 27.7, -78.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 959 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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