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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 37
2019-09-02 16:50:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 021450 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND STORM SURGE AS DORIAN INCHES WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.8N 78.3W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.23 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been extended northward along the east coast of Florida to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. The Storm Surge Watch has been extended northward along the Georgia coast to the Savannah River. The Hurricane Warning along the east coast of Florida has been extended northward to the Flagler/Volusia County Line. The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to south of Lantana * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Savannah River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Grand Bahama and the Abacos Islands in the northwestern Bahamas * Jupiter Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Altamaha Sound Georgia A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along southeast coast of the United States should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 78.3 West. Dorian is moving very slowly toward the west near 1 mph (2 km/h). A slow westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest and north. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Grand Bahama Island through much of today and tonight. The hurricane will then move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late tonight through Wednesday evening and then move dangerously close to the Georgia and South Carolina coasts on Wednesday night and Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 922 mb (27.23 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue on Grand Bahama Island. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase after the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in Florida by late tonight or Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm warning area today and Tuesday, and are possible in the Tropical Storm watch area by tonight. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Water levels should very slowly subside on the Abaco Islands during the day. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana to the Savannah River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana...2 to 4 ft Water levels could begin rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Central Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals of 6 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...4 to 8 inches, isolated 10 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible this afternoon into tonight along the immediate coast of east-central Florida. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Advisory Number 37
2019-09-02 16:49:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 021449 TCMAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER. THE HURRICANE WARNING ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE. THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LANTANA TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO SOUTH OF LANTANA * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * GRAND BAHAMA AND THE ABACOS ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS * JUPITER INLET TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET * FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO THE ALTAMAHA SOUND GEORGIA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH * LAKE OKEECHOBEE A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE- THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.3W AT 02/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 922 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 78.3W AT 02/1500Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 78.2W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 26.9N 78.7W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.2N 79.1W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 28.1N 79.6W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.3N 80.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 35SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 32.0N 79.4W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 35.4N 75.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 40.7N 66.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 78.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Hurricane Dorian (AT5/AL052019)
2019-09-02 15:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DORIAN SITTING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS AND SURGE... As of 10:00 AM EDT Mon Sep 2 the center of Dorian was located near 26.7, -78.3 with movement W at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 919 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 160 mph.
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Hurricane Dorian Update Statement
2019-09-02 15:56:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 021356 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1000 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...DORIAN SITTING OVER GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND WITH EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WINDS AND SURGE... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island. SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane Dorian Update Statement
2019-09-02 14:55:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 000 WTNT65 KNHC 021255 TCUAT5 Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 900 AM EDT Mon Sep 02 2019 ...DESTRUCTIVE HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS LASHING GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... This is a life-threatening situation. Residents on Grand Bahama Island should not leave their shelter when the eye passes over, as winds will rapidly increase on the other side of the eye. Residents in the Abacos should continue to stay in their shelter until conditions subside later today. Hazards: - Wind Gusts to 200 mph - Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher destructive waves These hazards will continue over Grand Bahama Island during most of the day, causing extreme destruction on the island. SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.7N 78.3W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...916 MB...27.05 INCHES $$ Forecaster Blake
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