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Hurricane Dorian Graphics
2019-09-02 05:00:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 03:00:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 03:24:54 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2019-09-02 04:59:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Mon, 02 Sep 2019 02:59:50 GMT
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Hurricane Dorian Forecast Discussion Number 35
2019-09-02 04:59:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 020259 TCDAT5 Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 Dorian remains an incredibly powerful hurricane and it is currently making landfall on the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. Satellite images show an symmetrical cyclone with a circular 10 n mi diameter eye and intense eyewall convection with lots of lightning being detected. Doppler radar data from Miami and the Bahamas show that Dorian has developed concentric eyewalls, and this feature is also noted by a double wind maximum that is evident in data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters. The initial intensity of Dorian is set at 155 kt based mostly on the SFMR winds from the aircraft. The aircraft data also indicated that the radii of tropical-storm-force winds are a little larger than they were earlier today. Dorian is still moving slowly westward at about 5 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is gradually weakening and shifting eastward in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is moving across the eastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause Dorian to slow down even more and perhaps stall, before it turns to the northwest late Monday or early Tuesday. This expected slow motion will likely be devastating to the Great Abaco and Grand Bahama Islands since it would prolong the catastrophic winds, storm surge, and rainfall over those areas. The timing of the northwest or north turn is very critical in determining how close Dorian will get to the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. In general, the track models have changed little from the previous cycle, and the NHC forecast continues to show the core of Dorian very near, but offshore, of the Florida peninsula on Tuesday and Wednesday. The hurricane is then expected to track near the Georgia and Carolina coasts late this week. This forecast is in best agreement with the various consensus models, which typically have the lowest errors. It is once again emphasized that although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track. A small deviation to the left of the track could bring the intense core of the hurricane and its dangerous winds closer to or onto the Florida coast. Category 5 hurricanes like Dorian usually don't hold that intensity for very long, and it is expected that Dorian will weaken slowly during the next few days. However, the observed eyewall replacement cycle will likely cause fluctuations in strength, both up and down, while the system is near Florida. The models show an increase in shear when Dorian tracks near Georgia and the Carolinas, which should cause more notable weakening. This forecast is near the high end of the latest model guidance. Based on this forecast, the hurricane watch has been extended northward to the Florida-Georgia line. Key Messages: 1. A prolonged period of catastrophic winds and storm surge will affect the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island for several more hours. Everyone there should take immediate shelter and not venture into the eye. 2. Life-threatening storm surges and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected along portions of the Florida east coast through mid-week, and storm surge and hurricane warnings are in effect. Only a slight deviation to the left of the official forecast would bring the core of Dorian near or over the Florida east coast. Residents should listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 3. There is an increasing likelihood of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian and listen to advice given by local emergency officials. 4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are expected over northern portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 26.6N 77.9W 155 KT 180 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 26.9N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 27.3N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 28.2N 79.8W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 30.6N 80.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 33.5N 77.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 37.5N 71.8W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Hurricane Dorian Wind Speed Probabilities Number 35
2019-09-02 04:59:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 020258 PWSAT5 HURRICANE DORIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 35 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019 0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 155 KTS...180 MPH...285 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) NWS EARLE NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ATLANTIC CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 25(27) CAPE HENLOPEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE HENLOPEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) OCEAN CITY MD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13) PAX RIVER NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) WALLOPS CDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) RICHMOND VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 21(27) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) NORFOLK VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 25(32) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 27(40) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 2(11) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 5(19) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 13(29) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) 38(69) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 28(40) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 23(28) 5(33) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 30(33) 22(55) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 40(45) 24(69) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 19(39) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 12(21) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 41(47) 22(69) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 18(38) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 10(19) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) 13(58) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 8(25) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 40(47) 10(57) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 6(24) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 46(67) 6(73) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 33(35) 7(42) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 4(22) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 29(38) 2(40) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) X(11) FLORENCE SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) 1(29) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) COLUMBIA SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 44(56) 4(60) LITTLE RIVER 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 3(25) LITTLE RIVER 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 40(70) 3(73) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 32(36) 2(38) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 1(18) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 43(64) 1(65) GEORGETOWN SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 27(30) 2(32) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 29(33) 35(68) X(68) CHARLESTON SC 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 23(31) 1(32) CHARLESTON SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 35(40) 26(66) X(66) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 19(30) X(30) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) X(11) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 13(25) 1(26) AUGUSTA GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 37(43) 18(61) 1(62) SAVANNAH GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 13(26) X(26) SAVANNAH GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) KINGS BAY GA 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 10(15) 49(64) 8(72) X(72) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 6(34) X(34) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) X(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 29(36) 9(45) X(45) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) MAYPORT NS FL 34 2 2( 4) 6(10) 26(36) 47(83) 4(87) X(87) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 43(49) 7(56) X(56) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 25(26) 4(30) X(30) JACKSONVILLE 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 11(17) 47(64) 5(69) X(69) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 4(30) X(30) JACKSONVILLE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) GAINESVILLE FL 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 13(19) 31(50) 3(53) X(53) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 3( 5) 14(19) 40(59) 28(87) 1(88) X(88) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 19(22) 33(55) 1(56) X(56) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 18(23) 1(24) X(24) THE VILLAGES 34 1 3( 4) 6(10) 23(33) 25(58) 3(61) X(61) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 11(17) 1(18) X(18) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 2 6( 8) 24(32) 31(63) 16(79) 1(80) X(80) ORLANDO FL 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 18(23) 16(39) 1(40) X(40) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) COCOA BEACH FL 34 8 49(57) 27(84) 13(97) 2(99) 1(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 1 6( 7) 30(37) 33(70) 12(82) 1(83) X(83) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X 1( 1) 10(11) 28(39) 15(54) X(54) X(54) PATRICK AFB 34 3 30(33) 34(67) 23(90) 6(96) X(96) X(96) PATRICK AFB 50 1 2( 3) 18(21) 33(54) 14(68) X(68) X(68) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 19(24) 11(35) 1(36) X(36) FT PIERCE FL 34 57 33(90) 8(98) 1(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 50 2 37(39) 32(71) 15(86) 3(89) X(89) X(89) FT PIERCE FL 64 X 7( 7) 28(35) 19(54) 4(58) 1(59) X(59) W PALM BEACH 34 82 15(97) 3(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 50 7 52(59) 19(78) 4(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) W PALM BEACH 64 1 18(19) 17(36) 5(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) FT LAUDERDALE 34 66 26(92) 5(97) X(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) FT LAUDERDALE 50 2 27(29) 14(43) 2(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 64 1 4( 5) 6(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 34 12 39(51) 11(62) 3(65) 2(67) X(67) X(67) MIAMI FL 50 1 4( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) MIAMI FL 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 4 23(27) 11(38) 3(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) HOMESTEAD ARB 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MARATHON FL 34 2 6( 8) 6(14) 4(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) KEY WEST FL 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) NAPLES FL 34 2 4( 6) 8(14) 6(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) NAPLES FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 2 5( 7) 9(16) 8(24) 6(30) 1(31) X(31) FT MYERS FL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) VENICE FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 8(17) 8(25) 1(26) X(26) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 11(20) 12(32) 3(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) CEDAR KEY FL 34 2 2( 4) 5( 9) 14(23) 23(46) 3(49) X(49) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15) X(15) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 9(13) 3(16) X(16) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 1(13) X(13) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GRAND BAHAMA 64 88 5(93) 2(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 37 8(45) 6(51) 3(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) NEW PROVIDENCE 50 2 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ANDROS 34 3 3( 6) 4(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) GREAT EXUMA 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Hurricane Dorian Public Advisory Number 35
2019-09-02 04:58:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 020257 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019 1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019 ...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON THE EASTERN END OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 77.9W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...180 MPH...285 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River. A Storm Surge Watch has also been extended northward from the Flagler/Volusia County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Lantana to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island * Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County Line A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Andros Island * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet * Volusia/Brevard County Line to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach * Lake Okeechobee A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian, as additional watches or warnings may be required later today. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 77.9 West. Dorian is moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or so, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of extremely dangerous Hurricane Dorian will continue to pound Great Abaco and Grand Bahama islands overnight and through much of Monday. The hurricane will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast late Monday through Tuesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph (285 km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is forecast, but fluctuations in intensity could occur couple of days. Regardless, Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 914 mb (26.99 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Catastrophic hurricane conditions continue in the Abacos and Grand Bahama Islands. Do not venture out into the eye, as winds will suddenly increase as the eye passes. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area in Florida by late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning area on Monday and Tuesday and are possible in the tropical storm watch area by Monday night. STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Lantana to the Mouth of the St. Mary's River...4 to 7 ft North of Deerfield Beach to Lantana FL...2 to 4 ft The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the how close the center of Dorian comes to the Florida east coast, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through late this week: Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches. Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches. The Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula through Georgia...3 to 6 inches, isolated 9 inches. Southeastern Virginia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches. This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods. SURF: Large swells are affecting east-facing shores of the Bahamas and the Florida east coast, and will spread northward along the southeastern United States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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