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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-14 07:01:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 140501 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small low pressure system is located about 80 miles south- southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization during the day and has not persisted near the center of circulation due to strong winds aloft. However, upper-level winds are expected to become gradually more favorable for development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward close to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development of the system while it moves generally westward, parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-14 01:40:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 132339 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A well-defined low pressure system located about 80 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is still producing a small but concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to become gradually more favorable for development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low moves slowly westward to west-northwestward close to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent. A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development of the system while it moves generally westward, parallel to the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 
 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-13 19:49:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131749 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A small, well-defined low pressure system located more than 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the center. Upper-level winds are expected to be marginally conducive for development of a tropical depression during the next few days while the disturbance moves moves slowly westward to west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico. However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of the expected track would bring the small low and its heavy rains closer to or even inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico, which would inhibit further development. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system as well as products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent. A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for development of the system while it moves generally westward, well offshore the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-13 13:21:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 131121 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Satellite-derived surface winds and radar data from Acapulco indicate that a small but well-defined low pressure system has developed less than 100 miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become much better organized overnight, and further development of the low is possible during the next few days while the system moves slowly westward to west-northwestward parallel to the southern coast of Mexico. However, only a slight deviation to the right or north of the expected track would bring the small disturbance and its heavy rains closer to or even inland along the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of this system as well as products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. $$ Forecaster Stewart

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2018-10-13 07:26:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

000 ABPZ20 KNHC 130526 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 12 2018 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: A trough of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms along and off the coast of southern Mexico. This system is drifting toward the west-northwest, and development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur before it moves inland over Mexico this weekend. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent. $$ Forecaster Beven

Tags: north weather pacific eastern

 

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