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Tropical Storm Rose Forecast Advisory Number 4
2021-09-20 04:49:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 139 WTNT22 KNHC 200249 TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM ROSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172021 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 31.1W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 30.6W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 16.9N 32.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.9N 34.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.9N 35.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.6N 36.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.9N 37.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 25.0N 38.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 27.1N 40.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 29.0N 40.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 31.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 6
2021-09-20 04:48:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 236 WTNT21 KNHC 200248 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 0300 UTC MON SEP 20 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 58.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 58.1W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 19.3N 60.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.1N 62.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.0N 65.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 22.0N 66.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.0N 67.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 23.9N 68.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 68.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 67.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 58.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART
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Tropical Storm Peter Forecast Advisory Number 5
2021-09-19 22:39:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 192039 TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM PETER FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162021 2100 UTC SUN SEP 19 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 57.8W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 57.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 19.1N 59.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...110NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.9N 62.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.8N 64.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 21.9N 66.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 22.9N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 24.1N 68.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 26.1N 68.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Peter Public Advisory Number 5
2021-09-19 22:39:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 192039 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Peter Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162021 500 PM AST Sun Sep 19 2021 ...PETER FENDING OFF STRONG WIND SHEAR... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 57.8W ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Peter was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 57.8 West. Peter is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion along with a gradual decrease in forward speed is is expected through Tuesday. A turn to the northwest is expected to occur by Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Peter is expected to pass well north of the Leeward Islands on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Some slight weakening is expected on Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) primarily to the northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Rainfall around the southern periphery of Tropical Storm Peter could produce rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts possible, across portions of the Northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico through Tuesday. This rainfall may lead to areas of urban and small stream flooding. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Peter are expected to reach the northern Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and then the Bahamas by midweek. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Latto
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Tropical Storm Rose Public Advisory Number 3
2021-09-19 22:37:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 192037 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Rose Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172021 800 PM CVT Sun Sep 19 2021 ...ROSE BECOMES THE SEVENTEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE BUSY 2021 HURRICANE SEASON... SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 29.9W ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rose was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 29.9 West. Rose is moving toward the north-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is forecast to begin by tonight and continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected through Monday. By Tuesday, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive, and Rose is forecast to begin a slow weakening trend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Blake
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