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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2014-09-16 16:46:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 161446 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 100 KTS...115 MPH...185 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 21
2014-09-16 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 161445 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 57.8W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT.......150NE 130SE 130SW 150NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 250SE 220SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 57.8W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 57.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.0N 57.1W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...150NE 150SE 140SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.7N 54.6W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW. 50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 38.4N 50.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...140NE 160SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 40.3N 45.7W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 80SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 160SE 180SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 41.0N 38.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 120SE 140SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 40.0N 35.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 38.0N 32.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 57.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-16 11:12:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 08:46:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 09:06:49 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-09-16 10:45:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160845 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 Convective cloud tops within Edouard's eyewall have occasionally been as cold as about -75C, but the eye has actually cooled during the past few hours. In addition, an 0614 UTC TRMM pass showed that the hurricane's eyewall is partially open on the north side. The Dvorak final-T estimate from TAFB increased to T5.5/102 kt but decreased to T4.5/77 kt from SAB, while the CIMSS ADT is holding steady near T5.6/105 kt. Due to the discrepancy between the various estimates, the initial intensity is being held at 95 kt. Analyses from UW-CIMSS and SHIPS diagnostics indicate that about 15 kt of southeasterly shear continues to affect Edouard. The shear is expected to decrease between 12-36 hours, and since waters will be warmer than 26C during that period, the hurricane still has a chance to strengthen a bit. The intensity guidance has decreased, with none of the usual hurricane models explicitly showing Edouard reaching major hurricane strength. However, given the improving environment, the NHC intensity forecast still allows for the possibility of a major hurricane in the next 12-24 hours. After that time, Edouard is expected to weaken quickly due to colder water and increasing vertical shear. The forecast continues to show Edouard becoming post-tropical by day 4, but the cyclone may begin to struggle to maintain organized deep convection as early as day 3 while it's over 22C water. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/11 kt. Edouard is located to the west of a mid-tropospheric high and will turn northward and northeastward into the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24-36 hours. An eastward acceleration is expected by 48 hours, but then the cyclone is forecast to turn southeastward and slow down on days 4 and 5 when it approaches the west side of a deep-layer low between Portugal and the Azores. The track guidance continues to be tightly clustered, and the updated NHC forecast has only been nudged slightly westward during the first 48 hours to be closer to the multi-model consensus TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 30.2N 57.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 31.7N 57.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 34.3N 56.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 37.1N 52.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 39.5N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0600Z 41.3N 39.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0600Z 40.5N 35.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0600Z 38.5N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-16 10:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 16 the center of EDOUARD was located near 30.2, -57.3 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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