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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 26
2014-09-17 22:35:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 172035 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 51.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 12(25) X(25) SANTA CRUZ AZO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Advisory Number 26
2014-09-17 22:34:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT21 KNHC 172034 TCMAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 2100 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 51.2W AT 17/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 70SE 50SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 80NE 120SE 100SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 200SE 150SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..230NE 310SE 270SW 350NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 51.2W AT 17/2100Z AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.2N 52.4W FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 39.4N 47.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 70SE 40SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 110SE 80SW 40NW. 34 KT...140NE 180SE 150SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 40.4N 42.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 40NW. 34 KT...120NE 150SE 130SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 40.2N 39.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 40.0N 38.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 40.0N 34.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 38.0N 31.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.8N 51.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-17 17:12:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 14:55:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:06:47 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 25
2014-09-17 16:57:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 171457 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 AM AST WED SEP 17 2014 Edouard is maintaining two concentric rings as indicated in the latest visible satellite images and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft wind data. Even though the central pressure is rather low, 958 mb, the pressure gradient is spread out over the large area comprising the two rings, leading to a lower peak wind than a typical cyclone would have. Flight-level and SFMR winds still support an intensity of about 80 kt, which is unchanged from the previous estimate. Edouard is accelerating northeastward with a motion of 045/20 kt. The hurricane is being steered by mid-latitude flow between the subtropical ridge and a broad trough over the western Atlantic Ocean. This pattern should force Edouard to move faster toward the east-northeast by late tonight, and eastward by late tomorrow. In a couple of days, Edouard (or its remnants) should turn southward to the west of the Azores around a large trough over the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The track guidance remains tightly clustered for the first 48 hours but continues to show some divergence during the post-tropical phase. The ECMWF has remained consistent on a sharper southward turn, while the GFS is showing a more gradual equatorward motion. Because of the consistency of the ECMWF during the past few runs, the latest NHC track is staying on the southwest side of the model envelope at long range, roughly halfway between the model consensus and the ECMWF. Edouard is moving quickly toward the northeast and should pass over waters cooler than 26C in less than 12 hours. Only a gradual weakening is shown during the first 24 hours due to cooler waters and moderate shear. All of the global models show a sharp increase in shear after that time while the cyclone is moving over much colder water. Thus a more rapid weakening is shown beginning late tomorrow, which is similar to a blend of the previous NHC forecast, the Florida State Superensemble, and the intensity consensus. The cyclone is expected to become post-tropical in 2 or 3 days, which is in good agreement with the global models. Although Edouard is expected to traverse warmer waters by the end of the forecast period, strong northwesterly shear is anticipated to hinder any redevelopment potential. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/1500Z 36.4N 53.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 18/0000Z 38.3N 49.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 18/1200Z 39.8N 44.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 19/0000Z 40.1N 40.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/1200Z 39.7N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/1200Z 39.4N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 21/1200Z 37.5N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/1200Z 34.5N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2014-09-17 16:57:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 171457 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1500 UTC WED SEP 17 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) 3(14) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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