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Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2020-08-27 10:41:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 270841 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BATON ROUGE LA 34 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MORGAN CITY LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ALEXANDRIA LA 50 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) ALEXANDRIA LA 64 34 X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 50 50 X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 50 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SHREVEPORT LA 34 91 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SHREVEPORT LA 50 42 X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) SHREVEPORT LA 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CAMERON LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 50 75 X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) JASPER TX 64 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) KOUNTZE TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KOUNTZE TX 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PORT ARTHUR TX 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 30
2020-08-27 10:40:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 270840 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 0900 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SAN LUIS PASS TO HIGH ISLAND...TEXAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY TO WEST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA HAS BEEN CANCELED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT. 64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 150SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 93.4W AT 27/0900Z AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 32.6N 93.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 34.8N 92.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 36.5N 90.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 37.6N 85.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 39.8N 71.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 100SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 47.9N 55.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 53.1N 46.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 93.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/ZELINSKY
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Summary for Hurricane Laura (AT3/AL132020)
2020-08-27 09:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EYEWALL OF LAURA PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING... As of 3:00 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 the center of Laura was located near 30.2, -93.4 with movement N at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 946 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.
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at3al132020
Hurricane Laura Update Statement
2020-08-27 09:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT63 KNHC 270755 TCUAT3 Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 300 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...EYEWALL OF LAURA PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING... The eyewall of Laura will continue to move inland across southwestern Louisiana during the next several hours. TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter. Take action now to protect your life! The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. A National Ocean Service tide station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana observed a water level rise of 9.19 ft Mean Higher High Water at 100 CDT. In Lake Charles, Louisiana, the airport reported a sustained wind of 98 mph (158 km/h) with a gust to 132 mph (212 km/h) and a University of Florida observing tower reported sustained winds of 95 mph (153 km/h) and a gust to 132 mph (2012 km/h) within the past couple of hours. A Weatherflow site in Cameron, Louisiana reported sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust to 117 mph (188 km/h) in the southern eyewall of Laura after the eye has passed overhead. SUMMARY OF 300 AM CDT...0800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 93.4W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.91 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi/Blake
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Hurricane Laura Update Statement
2020-08-27 08:55:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT63 KNHC 270655 TCUAT3 Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 200 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...EYEWALL OF LAURA PUSHING INLAND ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA... ...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE, EXTREME WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING ONGOING... The eyewall of Laura will continue to move inland across southwestern Louisiana during the next several hours. TAKE COVER NOW! Treat these imminent extreme winds as if a tornado was approaching and move immediately to the safe room in your shelter. Take action now to protect your life! The safest place to be during a major landfalling hurricane is in a reinforced interior room away from windows. Get under a table or other piece of sturdy furniture. Use mattresses, blankets or pillows to cover your head and body. Remain in place through the passage of these life-threatening conditions. A National Ocean Service tide station at Calcasieu Pass, Louisiana observed a water level rise of 9.19 ft Mean Higher High Water at 100 CDT. The Lake Charles, Louisiana airport recently reported a sustained wind of 85 mph (137 km/h) with a gust to 128 mph (206 km/h). A University of Florida observing tower near Lake Charles recently reported a sustained wind of 86 mph (138 km/h) with a gust to 112 mph (180 km/h) A Texas Coastal Ocean Observing Network site at Sabine Pass on the Texas/Louisiana border recently reported sustained winds of 74 mph (119 km/h) with a gust to 90 mph (145 km/h). SUMMARY OF 200 AM CDT...0700 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.0N 93.3W ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...225 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES $$ Forecaster Zelinsky/Cangialosi/Blake
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