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Hurricane Laura Public Advisory Number 31
2020-08-27 16:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 271448 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Laura Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA... ...HIGH WATER LEVELS PERSIST ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.9N 93.1W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued west of Sabine Pass, Texas and east of Port Fourchon, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Sabine Pass Texas to Port Fourchon Louisiana A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Laura was located inland over northwestern Louisiana near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 93.1 West. Laura is moving toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion should continue through today. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, Laura will move northward across northern Louisiana this afternoon. The center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, and the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to become a tropical storm withing the next few hours, and weaken to a tropical depression tonight. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. STORM SURGE: Water levels remain elevated along the Gulf Coast and will continue to subside over the next few hours. WIND: Damaging wind gusts and tropical storm conditions are expected to spread into portions of northern Louisiana and Arkansas through this evening. RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas, with isolated storm totals of 18 inches over Louisiana. This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across the mid-Mississippi Valley, portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, and western Mississippi. The risk for tornadoes will shift into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions on Friday into Friday night. SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas and northeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Laura Forecast Discussion Number 31
2020-08-27 16:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 271448 TCDAT3 Hurricane Laura Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 1000 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to move inland over west-central Louisiana this morning. Satellite and radar imagery has shown a gradual filling of the eye, and a reduction in Doppler velocities in the northeastern eyewall. The initial intensity is set at 65 kt, based on a reduction of the Doppler velocities and the typical filling rate of inland hurricanes. The highest wind gusts at official observing sites within the past few hours has been at Alexandria, Louisiana, where a gust to 75 kt has been reported. The hurricane is moving slightly east of due north or 005/14 kt. A general northward motion should continue through this evening as the hurricane moves around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States. Laura should turn northeastward overnight while it moves across Arkansas and becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies. A faster east-northeastward motion is forecast by late Friday, which will bring Laura or its remnants across the central Appalachians and to the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. After that time, the system is expected to accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward over the western Atlantic. Laura will continue to rapidly weaken today while it moves farther inland. The cyclone will become a tropical storm this afternoon and is expected to weaken to a tropical depression tonight or early Friday. Although Laura is weakening, strong wind gusts are likely to spread over northern Louisiana and Arkansas into this evening. The UKMET and ECMWF models continue show the extratropical remnants of Laura strengthening somewhat over the western Atlantic, and the NHC forecast continues to depict the system as a gale-force low at days 3-5. An alternate scenario is for the system to be absorbed by a frontal boundary over the western Atlantic before the end of the forecast period. The extratropical portion of the forecast is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Key Messages: 1. Dangerous storm surge will result in elevated water levels for the next few hours along the Gulf Coast from Sabine Pass, Texas, to Port Fourchon, Louisiana. In some areas where surge penetrated far inland, flood waters will not fully recede for several days. 2. Damaging winds will continue near the center of Laura over portions of northern Louisiana and Arkansas today and this evening. 3. Widespread flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways will continue across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Additional rainfall will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 31.9N 93.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 72H 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown
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Hurricane Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 31
2020-08-27 16:48:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 271448 PWSAT3 HURRICANE LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAFAYETTE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) SHREVEPORT LA 34 80 X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) FORT POLK LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FORT POLK LA 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) LAKE CHARLES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) JASPER TX 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Hurricane Laura Forecast Advisory Number 31
2020-08-27 16:47:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 WTNT23 KNHC 271447 TCMAT3 HURRICANE LAURA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 1500 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF SABINE PASS... TEXAS AND EAST OF PORT FOURCHON...LOUISIANA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SABINE PASS TEXAS TO PORT FOURCHON LOUISIANA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 93.1W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 93.3W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 33.9N 92.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 35.8N 91.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 37.0N 87.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 38.0N 82.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 38.7N 74.9W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 41.8N 66.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 50.0N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 53.5N 43.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 93.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Hurricane Laura Update Statement
2020-08-27 15:56:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 485 WTNT63 KNHC 271356 TCUAT3 Hurricane Laura Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 900 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES ALONG MUCH OF THE LOUISIANA COASTLINE... Alexandria International Airport, Louisiana, recently reported a sustained wind of 48 mph (78 km/h) and a wind gust of 79 mph (128 km/h). SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.7N 93.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts/Brown
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