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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-28 01:50:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 23:50:46 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 21:24:41 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Graphics
2020-08-27 22:47:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:47:26 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Aug 2020 20:43:23 GMT
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Tropical Storm Laura Forecast Discussion Number 32
2020-08-27 22:43:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272043 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Laura Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 Laura has continued to weaken this afternoon. The satellite and radar presentation of the tropical cyclone has continued to degrade, and the center has now moved into southern Arkansas. The initial intensity has been reduced to 45 kt, and is based on a blend of surface observations, Doppler radar data, and typical over land tropical cyclone filling rates. Sustained tropical storm force winds have been observed in northern Louisiana, and wind gusts to nearly 50 kt were reported in southern Arkansas earlier this afternoon. Laura will continue to rapidly weaken during the next 6-12 hours, and it is expected to become a tropical depression either this evening or overnight. The extratropical remnants could strengthen over the western Atlantic early next week, and the track and intensity forecast for that time is based on guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. The tropical storm has turned north-northeastward or 015/13 kt. The cyclone is forecast to turn northeastward, and then east- northeastward as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies on Friday. This motion will take Laura or its remnants across the central Appalachians and to the Mid-Atlantic states on Saturday. After that time, the system should accelerate east-northeastward to northeastward over the western Atlantic. The updated NHC track forecast remains similar to the previous advisory and is close to the various consensus models. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will continue near the center of Laura over portions of extreme northern Louisiana and Arkansas this evening. 2. Flash flooding along small streams, urban areas, and roadways will continue across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi and Arkansas. Additional rainfall will also lead to minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. The heavy rainfall threat and flash and urban flooding potential will spread northeastward into the middle-Mississippi, lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, and Mid-Atlantic States Friday and Saturday. 3. A few tornadoes are possible this evening across central and eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should redevelop Friday afternoon and evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 33.4N 92.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 12H 28/0600Z 35.3N 91.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 28/1800Z 36.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 37.4N 85.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 29/1800Z 38.2N 78.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 30/0600Z 39.6N 70.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 30/1800Z 43.1N 63.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 31/1800Z 48.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 01/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Public Advisory Number 32
2020-08-27 22:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 000 WTNT33 KNHC 272042 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Laura Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132020 400 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2020 ...FLOODING RAINFALL AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SPREADING INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF ARKANSAS... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...33.4N 92.8W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NE OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSW OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning along the Gulf coast has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Tropical storm warnings remain in effect inland over portions of northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and extreme western Mississippi. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Laura was located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 92.8 West. Laura is moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is expected to begin on Friday and continue into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Laura is forecast to move over Arkansas tonight, the mid-Mississippi Valley on Friday, the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday, and over the western Atlantic on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Laura is expected to weaken to a tropical depression this evening or overnight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface observations is 991 mb (29.27 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Laura can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through Friday Laura is expected to produce the following additional rainfall totals: Over central and eastern Arkansas: 3 to 7 inches. Over southern Louisiana and southern Mississippi: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated additional totals of 5 inches. Isolated storm totals of 15 to 18 inches across southwest Louisiana. Over northern Mississippi, western Tennessee, and southeast Missouri: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches. This rainfall will continue to cause widespread flash and urban flooding, small streams and creeks to overflow their banks, and minor to moderate freshwater river flooding. Through Saturday, Laura is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches across portions of the Tennessee and Lower Ohio Valleys, the central and southern Appalachians, and the Mid-Atlantic States. This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding and rapid rises on small streams. WIND: Tropical storm force winds, especially in gusts, will spread into portions of southeastern and eastern Arkansas through this evening. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes remain possible this evening, mainly across central and eastern Arkansas into Mississippi. The risk for a few tornadoes should redevelop Friday afternoon into the evening across parts of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley regions. SURF: Swells produced by Laura continue to affect the U.S. Gulf coast from the Florida Panhandle to Texas. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Laura Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2020-08-27 22:42:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 000 FONT13 KNHC 272042 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM LAURA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132020 2100 UTC THU AUG 27 2020 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LAURA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) X(11) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) X(17) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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