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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 18
2020-09-05 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 050240 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Another burst of convection has developed near and to the south of the center of Omar, so the system continues as a tropical depression despite ongoing strong shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on recently received scatterometer data and a satellite intensity estimated from TAFB. A combination of continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low on Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night or Sunday. Omar is starting its expected north-northeastward turn and the initial motion is now 070/4. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north-northeastward tonight and Saturday and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 35.6N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 38.9N 55.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Omar Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2020-09-05 04:40:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 FONT15 KNHC 050240 PWSAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Advisory Number 18
2020-09-05 04:40:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 000 WTNT25 KNHC 050240 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152020 0300 UTC SAT SEP 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 57.3W AT 05/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.6N 57.3W AT 05/0300Z AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 36.8N 56.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 38.9N 55.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.6N 57.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Tropical Depression Omar Graphics
2020-09-04 22:34:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 20:34:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2020 21:24:55 GMT
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Tropical Depression Omar Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-09-04 22:33:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 000 WTNT45 KNHC 042033 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Omar Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152020 500 PM AST Fri Sep 04 2020 Omar continues to hang on as a tropical depression. The cyclone is producing a small area of thunderstorms to the south of the center, enough to continue writing advisories on this system for now. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on the earlier ASCAT data. Omar has been more resistant than expected to the ongoing northerly wind shear, but the models insist that the continued shear, dry air, and cooler waters should cause it to decay to a remnant low this evening or early Saturday and dissipate entirely by Saturday night. The tropical depression is still moving eastward at about 5 kt. An approaching deep-layer trough should cause Omar to turn north- northeastward tonight and then accelerate in that direction until it dissipates over the northern central Atlantic this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 35.3N 57.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 36.2N 57.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 05/1800Z 38.0N 56.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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