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Tropical Depression Three Graphics

2018-07-08 04:36:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 02:36:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 08 Jul 2018 02:36:51 GMT

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Tropical Depression Three Forecast Discussion Number 6

2018-07-08 04:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080234 TCDAT3 Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 The depression is gradually becoming better organized. Geostationary satellite and microwave images indicate that the center is located on the northern side of a convective burst and to the east of a broken curved band. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak classification from SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. This estimate also uses data from NOAA buoy 41002 located about 60 n mi south-southeast of the center. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system overnight, and it should provide a better estimate of the cyclone's intensity. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has now stalled, as forecast. The cyclone is caught in very weak steering currents between two mid-level ridges and a mid- to upper-level trough to its north. A very slow southeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as ridging builds to the north of the system. Thereafter, a sharp northeastward turn with an abrupt increase in forward speed is predicted when a deep-layer trough approaches the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is adjusted a little to the south of the previous one in the short term based on the latest guidance. The depression is presently over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream Current and it will remain over these warm SSTs during the next few days. In addition, light to moderate wind shear and perhaps some baroclinic forcing from the approaching trough should allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen during the next few days. The NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one, and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Extratropical transition is forecast to occur in a little more than 4 days when the system is expected to cross the north wall of the Gulf Stream current and move over very cold waters. Although the depression is expected to remain offshore of the North Carolina coastline, the tight pressure gradient between the depression and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. is expected to produce gale-force winds over Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. See products issued by the National Weather Service forecast offices for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 32.9N 75.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 32.8N 74.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 32.6N 74.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 32.4N 74.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 32.3N 73.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 34.5N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 41.0N 63.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 49.0N 53.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Summary for Tropical Depression Three (AT3/AL032018)

2018-07-08 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE... ...HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Jul 7 the center of Three was located near 32.9, -75.1 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1014 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Three Public Advisory Number 6

2018-07-08 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 000 WTNT33 KNHC 080234 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032018 1100 PM EDT Sat Jul 07 2018 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE... ...HURRICANE HUNTERS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.9N 75.1W ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB...29.95 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the coast of North Carolina should monitor the progress of this system. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three was located near latitude 32.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. The depression is stationary and a very slow southeastward motion is forecast during the next couple of days. A faster northeastward motion is expected to begin on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm overnight or Sunday with additional strengthening expected after that. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1014 mb (29.95 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase and affect portions of the coasts of North Carolina and the mid-Atlantic states into early next week. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. WIND: Winds to gale force not directly associated with the depression are expected along the North Carolina coast and over Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds during the next day or so. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Three Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6

2018-07-08 04:34:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 000 FONT13 KNHC 080234 PWSAT3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032018 0300 UTC SUN JUL 08 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 41(44) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 35(37) BURGEO NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) BURGEO NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) PTX BASQUES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PTX BASQUES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 20(26) EDDY POINT NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) EDDY POINT NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 29(36) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 33(53) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 18(24) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 13(22) HALIFAX NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) HALIFAX NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 6(24) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) YARMOUTH NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) MONCTON NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) ST JOHN NB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTLAND ME 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) HYANNIS MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW HAVEN CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) MONTAUK POINT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 2 3( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 11(29) 1(30) X(30) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW RIVER NC 34 2 5( 7) 8(15) 6(21) 8(29) X(29) X(29) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 34 2 4( 6) 6(12) 6(18) 8(26) X(26) X(26) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BALD HEAD ISL 34 1 3( 4) 5( 9) 4(13) 6(19) X(19) X(19) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MYRTLE BEACH 34 1 1( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 3(12) X(12) X(12) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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